华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250617

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The finished products are expected to fluctuate and sort out, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some individual mills after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - In May, due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the supply was tight, the price rose, and the theoretical profit expanded to 409 yuan/ton by the end of May. In June, the bauxite price fluctuated, the alumina cost did not change much, the production capacity that had been cut due to maintenance was partially restored, and the new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity [3] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with the weekly starting rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas on June 16 was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory decline slowed down in mid - June, with increased arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Gongyi and a significant decline in Foshan [3] - The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory to maintain a downward trend, but the increase in northwest shipments and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3][4] - Overseas macro instability persists, and the price faces pressure in the off - season. The inventory decline supports the price. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]