进口继续下滑，火电由降转增，旺季反弹可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal production remains stable, with May's output at 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [12][17] - Coal imports continue to decline, with May imports at 36.04 million tons, down 17.7% year-on-year [17][12] - Thermal power generation has turned from decline to increase, with a 1.2% year-on-year growth in May [19][20] - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal production in 2025, with a net increase of 55-60 million tons, representing a growth of approximately 1.2-1.3% [12][17] Summary by Sections Production - In May, the industrial raw coal output was 400 million tons, with a daily average of 13.01 million tons [12][15] - The total output from January to May was 1.99 billion tons, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year increase [12] Imports - Coal imports in May were 36.04 million tons, a decrease of 17.7% compared to the same month last year [17][12] - From January to May, total coal imports reached 188.67 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [17] Demand - The total industrial power generation in May was 737.8 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [19][20] - Thermal power generation increased by 1.2% in May, reversing the previous month's decline [19][20] - Hydropower generation saw a significant decline of 14.3% year-on-year [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and China Qinfa for investment [36][37] - It highlights the performance of new energy companies and those with potential for growth, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [36]