碳酸锂数据日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream enters the off - season with stable production scheduling, and the supply side increases hedging output driven by price rebound. Although the ore price shows signs of stabilization, the downstream restocking amplitude is small. The fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and stable demand, and the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to decline in the short term. There is no sign of production reduction at the ore end, and there is a possibility that the lithium carbonate price and the ore price will form a negative feedback again later [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,500 yuan, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,900 yuan, down 150 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2506 closes at 60,000 yuan, up 0.03%; 2507 closes at 60,240 yuan, down 0.13%; 2508 down 0.46%; 2509 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.7%; 2510 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.93% [1] 3.3 Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 624 yuan, down 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 5660 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 6595 yuan [1][2] 3.4 Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,405 yuan, down 70 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,550 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,575 yuan, down 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,075 yuan, down 140 yuan [2] 3.5 Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720 yuan, down 130 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 240 yuan, up 220 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 460 yuan, up 320 yuan [2] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 133,549 tons, up 1117 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,653 tons, up 537 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,686 tons, down 390 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,210 tons, up 970 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,043 tons, down 75 tons [2] 3.7 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 536 yuan, and the profit is - 879 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,237 yuan, and the profit is - 7076 yuan [3] 3.8 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. It has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage more domestic processing by miners [3]