Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Fundamental Remains Unchanged, Lead Price Maintains Range-bound Consolidation [1] - Report Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, some primary lead smelters have routine maintenance plans, and the start - up of secondary lead smelters is highly uncertain due to raw material issues. The demand side is also in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation in the lead market. It is expected that the price will maintain range - bound consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on lead prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots increased by 1.67% week - on - week to 16,775 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.98% to 16,945 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.94% to 1,992.5 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Primary Lead - 2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Unchanged, TC Stable: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of June 6, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 46.7 yuan/ton [25][31] - 2.2 Primary Lead Start - up Rate Increased to 70.79%: Some regional smelters are about to enter the maintenance period, which may have a certain impact on production [32][36] - 2.3 Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelting Enterprises: The total expected output this week is 50,185 tons, a decrease from the previous week. Some enterprises in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are expected to have routine maintenance [38] 3. Secondary Lead - 3.1 Scrap Battery Price Firm: As of June 13, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of scrap batteries has not improved. The losses of secondary lead smelters have narrowed slightly. As of June 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 393 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 614 yuan/ton [43][46][51] - 3.2 Secondary Lead Raw Material Inventory Decreased, Finished Product Inventory Increased: As of June 13, the secondary lead raw material inventory was 128,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 25,000 tons. Considering price and quality factors, downstream buyers mostly purchase primary lead. The secondary lead factory inventory has continued to accumulate [53][55] - 3.3 Secondary Lead Start - up Rate Declined: The secondary lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% week - on - week. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 35,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters in multiple regions have reduced production or intermittently shut down for heat preservation [56] 4. Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% week - on - week. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the start - up of lead batteries has returned to normal, and the increase mainly comes from the electric bicycle and automotive lead battery sectors [60][62] 5. Import and Export - As of June 6, the refined lead export loss was about 2,500 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the import profit was - 548.86 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67][72] 6. Social Inventory - 6.1 Domestic Social Inventory Increased: As of June 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 54,700 tons, showing an increase. The inventory continued to rise due to the widening of the spot - futures price difference and the delivery and position transfer of holders [76][80] - 6.2 SHFE Inventory Increased, LME Inventory Decreased: As of June 13, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase; the LME inventory was 265,000 tons, showing a decrease [83][85] - 6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance situation has fluctuated in different months, with inventory changes also varying [86]
有色金属周报(铅):基本面暂无变动,铅价维持区间整理-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-17 04:01