黑色金属数据日报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a trading range, and it is advisable to seize hedging opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The rebound height of finished steel is relatively limited, and the market will enter a period of tug - of - war. It is recommended to use the volatile market to rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and the futures are at a premium to the spot. The market is in a state of indecision. Industrial customers can actively participate in selling hedging, while single - side trading can wait for a clearer situation. In the medium - to - long - term, the bottom of coking coal has not been confirmed [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Their prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [7]. - For iron ore, the overall weak trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - On June 16, 2025, for far - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601), the closing prices were 2985.00 yuan/ton, 3101.00 yuan/ton, 675.00 yuan/ton, 1392.50 yuan/ton, and 810.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.78%, 1.04%, 0.52%, 2.35%, and 3.05%. For near - month contracts (RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, JM2509), the closing prices were 2990.00 yuan/ton, 3104.00 yuan/ton, 704.50 yuan/ton, 1371.00 yuan/ton, and 795.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.21%, 1.90%, and 2.84% [3]. - On June 16, 2025, the cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, spot prices, and basis data for various varieties were also provided, along with their changes [3]. Steel Market - On Monday, the spot and futures prices rebounded slightly, but the willingness to sell spot goods increased, and the price rebound was hesitant. Overseas, the Iran situation may have an indirect impact on the coal market in the capital market, but its influence on the spot market is weak. Domestically, the steel spot market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. The US tariff increase on steel - based household appliances and the suspension of domestic home appliance national subsidy policies have increased the supply - demand pressure in the hot - rolled coil market. It is recommended to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Market - In the spot market, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and port prices are weak. In the futures market, the black chain index has strengthened, and coking coal led the rise. Macroscopically, domestic policies are mainly for bottom - support, and overseas disturbances are numerous. Industrially, steel demand is seasonally weak, and steel production has decreased. Coking coal inventories at the mine mouth continue to accumulate, but supply is affected by safety and environmental issues. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and industrial customers can participate in selling hedging [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, but direct demand has weakened, and cost support has declined. For silicomanganese, supply has increased from a low level, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened. Their prices are expected to be under pressure [7]. Iron Ore Market - The overall weak trend of iron ore remains unchanged. Ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories have shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. The black market is entering the off - season, and downstream pressure is intensifying. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. Investment Strategies - For steel, maintain a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management, and rotate inventory for spot goods. For coking coal and coke, industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging. For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, buy put options at high prices [9].