纸浆数据日报-20250617

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear driving factors in the short - term, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Data - Futures Prices: On June 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5236, up 0.65% day - on - day and down 1.13% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5242, down 0.49% day - on - day and down 1.95% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5232, up 0.65% day - on - day and down 1.10% week - on - week [1]. - Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6100, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.81% week - on - week; Russian Coniferous pulp was 5300, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.93% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4100, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.49% week - on - week [1]. - Outer - Disk Quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1]. - Import Costs: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, unchanged; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1]. b. Fundamental Data - Supply: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipments to China were 1353 tons, down 30.80% [1]. - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, pulp port inventory was 218.5 tons, up 1.3% from the previous period; delivery warehouse inventory was 25.50 tons [1]. - Demand: The production of finished paper remained stable. Double - offset paper production was 20.10 tons; coated paper production was 7.61 tons; household paper production was 28.00 tons; white cardboard production was 30.10 tons [1]. c. Valuation Data - Basis: On June 16, 2025, the Russian Coniferous pulp basis was 58, with a quantile level of 0.818; the Silver Star basis was 858, with a quantile level of 0.972 [1]. - Import Profit: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 54, with a quantile level of 0.712; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 487, with a quantile level of 0.204 [1]. d. Summary of Market Conditions - Supply - Side: Chilean Arauco's June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk quotes: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (face value), unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June, with limited supply expected to resume in July; natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (face value), unchanged. In April 2025, the shipments of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the shipments of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year - on - year [1]. - Demand - Side: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid purchases, and the production of major finished papers remained stable [1]. - Inventory - Side: As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 218.5 tons, up 2.8 tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [1]. e. Strategy A 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy is recommended as the pulp market lacks clear driving factors in the short - term [1].