贵金属数据日报-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Israel - Iran situation and tariff policies, and the market will face a super - week of central banks including the Fed, which may increase market volatility. Silver prices were supported by the Israel - Iran conflict boosting oil prices, but it's difficult to rise significantly again after the previous sharp increase [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the downward risk of the US economy, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - Precious Metals Prices: On June 16, 2025, London gold spot was at $3415.20/ounce, London silver spot at $36.38/ounce, COMEX gold at $3434.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $36.48/ounce, AU2508 at 792.30 yuan/gram, AG2508 at 8858 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 788.66 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 8831 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, gold prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while silver prices rose, with increases of 0.8% for London silver spot, COMEX silver, and AG2508, and 0.6% for AG (T + D) [3]. - Price Spreads/Ratios: On June 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 27 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 0.41 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 583 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 89.44, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 94.16, AU2512 - 2508 was 3.74 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2508 was 31 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, the price spreads and ratios showed various changes, with the largest increase of 58.8% in the silver TD - SHFE active price spread and the largest decrease of 86.5% in the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 940.49 tons, up 0.28% from June 12; the silver ETF - SLV was 14675.3622 tons, down 0.36%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 245995 contracts, down 0.40%; the non - commercial short positions were 58514 contracts, down 0.95%; the non - commercial net long positions were 187481 contracts, down 0.23%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 85192 contracts, up 3.92%; the non - commercial short positions were 18542 contracts, down 12.58%; the non - commercial net long positions were 66650 contracts, up 9.68% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On June 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18177 kg, unchanged from June 13; the SHFE silver inventory was 1194931 kg, down 1.25%. As of June 13, the COMEX gold inventory was 37789752 ounces, unchanged from June 12; the COMEX silver inventory was 498460011 ounces, up 0.05% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Markets - On June 16, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.18, the US dollar index was 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96, the VIX was 4.41, the S&P 500 was 5976.97, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 73.18, and NYMEX crude oil was not clearly stated. Compared with June 13, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.02%, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.54%, the VIX rose 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and NYMEX crude oil rose 6.27% [4]. 3.5 Important News - Geopolitical: The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. The Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel is willing to stop the action if Iran accepts the US demand to abandon the nuclear program. Trump and the US are not currently involved in Israel's military strike against Iran but may be involved in the future [4]. - Economic Data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in June was 60.5, the first improvement in 6 months. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation was 5.1%, and the preliminary value of the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 4.1% [4].