2025年下半年中国资本市场展望：波浪式前进的慢牛新格局

Group 1: Core Views - The Chinese capital market is expected to present a "slow bull" pattern characterized by "wave-like progress" in the second half of 2025 [2][51] - The international macroeconomic backdrop shows a slowdown in US economic growth, with the Federal Reserve likely to delay interest rate cuts, anticipating only one cut in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - China's macroeconomic landscape continues to promote high-quality development, with various incentive policies being implemented to support economic growth [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 5%, with total GDP expected to reach approximately 141.7 trillion yuan in 2025 [36][34] - The government has emphasized high-quality development in its work report, focusing on technology and macroeconomic stability [37][34] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets are being introduced, with a strong intention to support the real economy [37][45] Group 3: Capital Market - The capital market is entering a new development phase, with significant differences in performance among various sectors, particularly small-cap and technology stocks [2][52] - The market's valuation levels have reached historically high points, with some indices experiencing significant gains since September 2024 [52][54] - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge as the market navigates between reality and policy interactions [51][52] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests using high-dividend sectors such as coal and hydropower as a defensive measure, while focusing on new productive forces in technology and military sectors as offensive strategies [2][63] - The emphasis on new productive forces is seen as crucial for countering external pressures and ensuring industrial security [63][62]