东海证券晨会纪要-20250617

Key Recommendations - Consumption performance is strong, but real estate drag deepens, as May economic data shows retail sales up 6.4% YoY, fixed asset investment up 3.7% YoY, and industrial output up 5.8% YoY [6][8] - The white liquor sector continues to bottom out, with a focus on seasonal prosperity in the food and beverage industry, as the sector index fell 4.37% [11][12] - Insurance companies will fully implement new accounting standards starting in 2026, with a focus on policy expectations from the Lujiazui Forum [15][17] - The price of pesticides is rising, presenting opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, with a significant increase in the price of a key pesticide [19][20] - Nvidia plans to build multiple AI factories in Europe, indicating a strong demand for AI chips and computing power [24][25] Economic Observations - The online retail sector significantly contributed to the retail sales growth, with a 6.3% YoY increase in online retail sales, driven by the "618" shopping festival and trade-in policies [7][8] - Industrial production showed resilience despite a slight decline, with the industrial value-added growth at 5.8% YoY, still above last year's average [8][9] - Fixed asset investment growth is declining, particularly in real estate, with a cumulative YoY decline of 10.7% in real estate investment [10][12] Sector Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to policy impacts and price declines, with major brands experiencing significant price drops [12][13] - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery as the consumption season approaches, with a 4.8% YoY increase in production [13][14] - The insurance sector is expected to see a long-term influx of capital as new accounting standards are implemented, enhancing market activity [15][18] Industry Trends - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing price increases, particularly for key products, which may benefit certain companies [19][20] - The mechanical equipment sector is seeing a slight decline in domestic sales but maintains growth in exports, with a 5.42% increase in excavator exports [30][32] - The tire industry is expected to see improved profitability as raw material prices decline, with a positive outlook for demand as weather warms [35][36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the white liquor sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [14] - In the agricultural chemical sector, companies benefiting from rising pesticide prices are highlighted for potential investment [19][20] - In the mechanical equipment sector, companies with strong global expansion strategies are recommended for investment [34]