煤化工策略日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Methanol: Coal prices are weakly stalemated with limited cost support. Supply is relatively stable, downstream demand follows mainly for rigid needs, and inventory accumulates slowly. With some Iranian devices shut down, imports may shrink later, and the methanol futures price has rebounded strongly. In the short - term, the center of gravity may continue to rise, but considering the high - temperature off - season, chasing the rise is not recommended. [3] - PVC: The cost side remains low, the market has abundant available goods, and demand follows generally, resulting in a slow market de - stocking speed. The upward trend of PVC futures price is hard to sustain. [4] - Urea: Daily production remains high, supply is abundant, and demand is weak with gradually accumulating enterprise inventory. With the expectation of improved agricultural demand, the urea futures have gradually stabilized. [5] - Caustic Soda: Enterprise profits are declining, the current capacity utilization rate is relatively high, downstream demand follows slowly, and market de - stocking is not smooth. Fundamentally, there is a lack of driving force, and it may fluctuate at a low level. [6][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Variety Strategy Views | Variety | Logic | View | Strategy | Support Level | Pressure Level | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | Import concerns | Steady upward exploration | Reduce long positions | 2330 - 2350 | 2530 - 2550 | | PVC | Insufficient demand | Upward pressure | Light - position short - trial | 4730 - 4750 | 4850 - 4900 | | Caustic Soda | Spot premium | Low - level wash - trading | Temporarily wait and see | 2200 - 2210 | 2330 - 2350 | | Urea | Loose supply and demand | Weak oscillation | Stop loss and exit short positions | 1650 - 1670 | 1730 - 1750 | [14] 3.2 Second Part: Futures Market Review | Variety | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2511 | 2367 | 2464 | 2593634 | 820106 | 0.00% | | PVC | 4866 | 4792 | 4860 | 1194646 | 978942 | 0.00% | | Urea | 1727 | 1680 | 1723 | 411867 | 279024 | 0.00% | | Caustic Soda | 2278 | 2237 | 2276 | 410848 | 201021 | - 6.32% | [14] 3.3 Third Part: Spot Market Trends - Methanol: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Central China 2255 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), Northwest 2010 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton), South China 2450 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton), North China 2055 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21] - PVC: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: North China market 4493 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China market 4755 yuan/ton (unchanged), South China market 4823 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton) [24] - Urea: Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in different regions vary, such as 1693 yuan/ton in North China (up 5 yuan/ton), 1781 yuan/ton in East China (up 6 yuan/ton), etc. [26] - Caustic Soda: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Shandong market 870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu market 960 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang market 1160 yuan/ton (unchanged) [29] 3.4 Fourth Part: Futures - Spot Basis Changes | Variety | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 121 | 30 | | PVC | - 105 | - 1 | | Caustic Soda | 22 | - 5 | | Urea | - 3 | - 72 | [36] 3.5 Fifth Part: Industry Startup Levels | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Startup Rate | 84.90% | 87.98% | 79.25% | 87.80% | 80.90% | | Month - on - Month Change | 4.14% | - 0.14% | - 1.47% | - 1.63% | - 2.60% | [41] 3.6 Sixth Part: Inventory Data Tracking | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory | 170.95 | 65.22 | 35.48 | 117.71 | 40.09 | | Weekly Change | 2.32 | 7.10 | - 0.66 | 14.17 | - 1.50 | [52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Market Supply and Demand Status - Methanol: The spot market atmosphere is warm, with prices rising. The spot is at a premium to futures, and the basis has expanded. The upstream coal market is stalemated, and the cost side changes little. The industry startup rate is high, and production is stable. Coastal inventory has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [57] - PVC: The spot market atmosphere is poor, with prices slightly loosening. The spot is at a discount to futures, and the basis has slightly expanded. The upstream raw material calcium carbide market has a small increase, and the PVC industry startup rate is expected to decline slightly. Social inventory has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [58] - Caustic Soda: The spot market atmosphere has cooled, with prices falling in some regions. The spot is at a large premium to futures, and the basis has fallen from a high level. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has shrunk significantly. Supply is generally stable, and downstream demand is average [59][60] - Urea: The spot market atmosphere is stable, with prices rising. The spot is at a small premium to futures, and the basis has converged. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. Downstream demand has improved slightly [61]