海外经济政策跟踪：美国：通胀预期回落，消费者信心回升

Economic Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in commodity prices, with IPE crude oil futures rising by 12.8%, the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index increasing by 4.9%, and London gold prices up by 3.7%[7] - The U.S. stock market saw a decline of 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 rose by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.41%[7] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - In May, the U.S. CPI year-on-year increased to 2.4%, slightly above the previous value of 2.3% but below market expectations of 2.4%[8] - The core CPI remained steady at 2.8%, while the month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%[8] - The Sentix investor confidence index for June improved significantly by 12.5 points to -5.4, indicating a marginal recovery in investor sentiment[10] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for June rebounded to 60.5, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 53.6[13] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations have notably decreased, with the 5-year inflation expectation dropping by 4 basis points to 2.31% and the 10-year expectation falling by 3 basis points to 2.28%[15] Policy Outlook - Following the May inflation data, former President Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, emphasizing the need to reduce debt costs[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials indicated that future rate cuts would depend on economic data, with the potential for further cuts in 2025[24] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected adjustments in overseas monetary policies and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[25]