百年复盘，寻找当下黄金的历史坐标

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the gold sector, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Zijin Mining Group Co., and Shandong Gold International Mining Co. [7] Core Insights - The macro narrative surrounding gold is currently reminiscent of the 1970s and early 20th century, with increasing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and high deficits [1][18] - Gold's valuation is considered reasonable relative to global M2, with potential for significant price increases, suggesting target prices of $3,435 and $6,088 per ounce based on different M2 comparisons [1][19] - Central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves, particularly in emerging markets, as gold regains its status as a hard currency [2][22] - Tariff policies are expected to elevate U.S. inflation expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates and maintain fiscal deficits [3][40] - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising populism globally are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][52] Summary by Sections Historical Context of Gold - Gold has shifted from a financial asset to a monetary asset, with its primary attributes ranked as monetary, financial, safe-haven, and commodity [11][12] - The historical valuation of gold indicates that it has significant upside potential based on current economic conditions and monetary policies [18] Current Market Dynamics - Central banks' gold purchases have been robust, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets, which currently hold only 8.2% of their reserves in gold compared to 33.2% in developed countries [2][22] - The implementation of Basel III regulations in 2025 will further enhance the demand for physical gold among banks [23] Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing a high deficit environment, with projections indicating an average deficit rate of 5.8% over the next decade, significantly higher than historical averages [3][40] - Tariff impacts on consumer confidence and economic growth could lead to stagflation, further complicating the economic landscape [3][46] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the rise of populism are increasing global uncertainties, which may bolster gold's safe-haven status [4][52]