AIA(HK:01299) Guoxin Securities·2025-06-17 05:53Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 87.13 to HKD 94.10, indicating over 25% upside potential from the current price of HKD 68.75 [6][3]. Core Insights - AIA Group is a leading life insurance company in the Asia-Pacific region, with a strong market presence and a robust network of agents and partners [1][15]. - The company achieved an annualized new premium income of USD 8.606 billion and a net profit of USD 6.883 billion for the year 2024, ranking second among listed insurance companies [1][15]. - AIA's new business value (NBV) reached USD 4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18% [35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - AIA Group, headquartered in Hong Kong, has a century-long history and focuses on life insurance in the Asia-Pacific region, covering 18 markets [1][14]. - The company has established a significant market share in various countries, with a strong emphasis on high-quality products and agent recruitment [15][39]. Business Performance - The company maintains a high new business value growth rate, with a new business value contribution from mainland China and Hong Kong consistently above 50% [2][39]. - As of 2024, the new business value distribution is as follows: Mainland China (24.0%), Hong Kong (34.8%), Thailand (16.1%), Singapore (9.0%), Malaysia (6.9%), and others (9.2%) [2][39]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's earnings and financial metrics, predicting a diluted EPS of USD 0.62, USD 0.67, and USD 0.74 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected embedded value per share (EVPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be USD 6.83, USD 7.46, and USD 8.22, respectively [5]. Valuation and Market Position - AIA is expected to enjoy a valuation premium due to its top-tier agent quality and global asset allocation strategy [3]. - The company's average P/EV ratio since 2017 is 1.75x, significantly higher than domestic peers, with current valuations at historical lows [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - AIA has implemented a multi-dimensional agent transformation strategy to enhance agent quality and retention, achieving a high MDRT count of 4,656 agents [2][3]. - The company is expanding its business footprint in mainland China, with recent approvals for new branches in key provinces [41][46].