蛋白数据日报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The优良率 of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas will be suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [8]. - From the perspective of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is slower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate in late June [7][8]. - Overall, the sharp rise in crude oil and the US biodiesel policy are favorable for oils and fats, suppressing the performance of beans. Under the current Sino - US policy, the premium is relatively firm, and the import cost of far - month soybean meal provides support. With the improvement of demand, the inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal is slow. It is expected that soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June. The spot basis and near - month contracts remain strong. Before the release of the August USDA planting area report, the market is expected to be volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Different regions have different basis values for 43% soybean meal spot (relative to the main contract). For example, in Dalian it is 5, in Tianjin it is - 65, in Zhangjiagang it is - 125 etc. [6] - There are also differential changes in basis for different regions of rapeseed meal spot, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [6][7] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1802, with a change of - 4. There are also data on soybean CNF premium and import soybean futures gross profit for different Brazilian shipment months [7] - Domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have increased slightly but are still at a low level [7][8] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is over 10 million tons. The current purchase progress for June is 100%, July is 95.9%, August is 55.2%, but the purchase for September and later is slow [7] - Demand: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, downstream transactions have increased, and提货 has improved [8]