证券研究报告行业月报：5月数据跟踪：粗钢产量收缩需要进一步观察-20250617

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a contraction in crude steel production, with May's output down 6.9% year-on-year, indicating a need for further observation regarding production adjustments [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased, impacting production and demand dynamics, although domestic economic conditions remain relatively stable [2][3] - Steel exports have shown significant growth, with net exports for January to May reaching 45.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [3] - The report suggests that the recovery of steel profitability is closely tied to supply-side adjustments and the overall economic recovery driven by fiscal policies [4] Summary by Sections Production Data - In May, crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 2.79 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [8] - Pig iron production in May was 74.11 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year [8] - Steel production in May was 127.43 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year [8] Export and Import Data - In May, steel exports were 10.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [8] - Steel imports in May were 480,000 tons, down 24.5% year-on-year [8] - Iron ore imports in May were 98.13 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (600782.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Baosteel (600019.SH) with a "Buy" rating - New Steel (600019.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995.SH) with a "Buy" rating - New Casting (000778.SZ) with an "Accumulate" rating [9]