光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日）-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.31% to 68.05 cents per pound, and CF509 increased 0.48% to 13,530 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 4,887 lots to 537,500 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price dropped by 70 yuan to 14,715 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B decreased by 22 yuan to 14,820 yuan per ton. With limited new news in the international market and no obvious improvement in downstream textile enterprises, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range. Future focus includes international situation, domestic policies, and weather [2]. - Sugar: The Thai Sugar Cane and Sugar Board (OSCB) expects the 2025/26 sugar production to reach 10.05 million tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable. The raw sugar rebounded at a low level. The domestic sugar spot price is stable, and the key variable is the import situation. If the arrival of imported sugar is lower than expected, a low - level rebound may occur [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 15; the main - contract basis was 1,290, down 57. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,715, down 70, and the national spot price was 14,820, down 22 [3]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 spread was 70, down 20; the main - contract basis was 423, down 3. The Nanning spot price was 6,020, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,090, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Information - Cotton: On June 16, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,725, down 28, with 308 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,715 yuan/ton, Henan 14,895 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,842 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,062 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 54.1, down 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.8, up 0.3; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.5, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.9, up 0.2 [4]. - Sugar: On June 16, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged at 6,020 yuan/ton and 6,090 yuan/ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 28,586, down 150, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts for cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton and sugar contracts over different time periods, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]. 3.4 Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin: Resource products research director at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. Has won many awards in futures analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu: Resource products analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties like urea and soda - ash glass [21]. - Sun Chengzhen: Resource products analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].