乘用车整车行业2025年中期投资策略：政策促需，高端加速，智能升维

Group 1 - The report highlights that the demand for passenger vehicles in 2025H1 was driven by the continuation of the old-for-new policy, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [1][21] - The overall wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 8.584 million units in the first four months of 2025, reflecting an 11.7% increase year-on-year, while traditional fuel vehicles experienced a decline of 6.3% [1][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained stable, with a wholesale penetration rate of 46.8% in 2025M1-4, up by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][44] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2025H2, the report forecasts that the continuation of the old-for-new policy will support demand, with expected insurance sales of 24.4 million units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 29.3 million units, a 6.4% increase [2][11] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate, predicting insurance sales of 14.7 million units and wholesale sales of 16.5 million units for new energy vehicles in 2025H2, representing year-on-year increases of 35.7% and 34.6%, respectively [2][11] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic brands accelerating their rise and capturing market share from joint ventures, which are expected to see their market share drop below 30% [3][12] - The report notes that domestic brands are expected to exceed 70% market share in 2025, with significant growth in the mid-to-high-end segments, particularly for brands like Geely and Xiaomi [3][12] - The high-end market is experiencing pressure from domestic brands, with BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) facing challenges in maintaining pricing power due to increasing competition from brands like Huawei and Xiaomi [3][13] Group 4 - The report identifies four major trends in the smart driving sector for 2025H2, including price reductions for smart driving features, accelerated deployment of VLA large models, enhanced hardware capabilities, and the widespread adoption of Door2Door intelligent driving [4][14] - Companies like Xiaopeng, Li Auto, and Huawei are expected to strengthen their competitive edge in smart driving through technological advancements [4][14] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic brands to expand their international presence, with expectations for passenger vehicle exports to reach 5.7 million units in 2025, a 17.0% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The report highlights that companies like BYD and Changan are establishing overseas factories, which will enhance their export capabilities and profitability [4][12]