行业点评报告：5月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进一步修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales data for May 2025 showed a better-than-expected growth of 6.4% year-on-year, driven by the early launch of the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [4][5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from an improving macroeconomic environment, with consumer income and willingness to spend likely to improve in the medium to long term [3][4] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, but is expected to attract attention due to low valuations and increasing dividend yields [3][6] - The snack food sector is experiencing growth driven by channel innovation and product diversification, with emerging channels like Sam's Club and online e-commerce showing high growth trends [6] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [4] - The food and oil category saw a year-on-year growth of 14.6%, while the beverage category grew by 0.1% and the tobacco and alcohol category increased by 11.2% [4][10][16] Quarterly Observations - The retail sales growth is expected to rebound in Q2 2025, with food and oil categories maintaining high growth rates [5] - The retail sales of food and oil, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol categories for April-May 2025 were +12.2%, -0.5%, and +6.3% year-on-year, respectively [5] Industry Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to regulatory impacts and seasonal demand weakness, while the snack food sector is thriving with strong growth opportunities [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch in the snack food sector, including Ximai Food, Yanjinpuzi, and Wancheng Group, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [3][6]