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高盛:6 月FOMC前瞻:对关税的谨慎看法
Goldman Sachs·2025-06-17 06:17

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Trade tensions have diminished somewhat since the last FOMC meeting, with low inflation and limited signs of economic softening observed [2][5] - The FOMC is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding tariffs and economic projections, emphasizing the uncertainty in the economic outlook [6][16] - Economic forecasts include a projected 14 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, leading to a peak core PCE inflation of 3.4%, GDP growth slowing to 1.25% in 2025, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4% [7][8][17] Economic Projections - The median projection for 2025 indicates slightly higher inflation at 3.0%, lower GDP growth at 1.5%, and a higher unemployment rate at 4.5% [17][21] - The FOMC is anticipated to deliver the first of three normalization cuts in December, with a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% expected by 2026 [25][27] - The report highlights that aside from tariffs, inflation news has been relatively soft, with wage growth expectations and new tenant rent growth declining [26][30] Tariff Impact - The report outlines that tariffs are expected to reduce GDP growth by almost 1 percentage point due to their tax-like effect on consumer spending and the uncertainty they create for business investment [8][10] - The effective tariff rate is projected to increase significantly, with over 9 percentage points attributed to tariffs already in effect [7][10] Summary of Economic Projections - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and core PCE inflation at 3.0% [19][20] - The FOMC's interest rate projections are expected to remain unchanged, with a close split among participants regarding future cuts [21][24]