Morgan Stanley(US:MS)2025-06-17 06:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to weigh on growth but not lead to a global recession [2]. - US real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. - The report suggests that while global growth is slowing, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to lower growth expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a step-down in growth, with inflation projected to peak in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in global demand due to tariffs, impacting exports and investment in the euro area and China [8]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but the global slowdown is expected to affect its exports and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with less leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, while in emerging markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [6]. - The report advises against cyclical exporters in Japan due to anticipated JPY appreciation [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a modest growth of 2.2% year-over-year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is expected to grow by 10% [7]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026, with Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [14][19]. - The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to implement rate cuts, with the ECB delivering 75 basis points and the BoE 100 basis points by year-end [14][19]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are subject to geopolitical uncertainties, with potential scenarios ranging from minimal disruption to significant price increases depending on developments in the Middle East [16]. - European gas prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand for LNG imports to meet storage targets [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven interest amid growth concerns [17].