Goldman Sachs·2025-06-17 06:17Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Hengrui Medicine with a 12-month price target of Rmb55.90, indicating an upside potential of 3.7% from the current price of Rmb53.89 [13][15]. Core Insights - Hengrui Medicine is positioned as a second-tier player in the GLP-1 space, with a comprehensive product offering that includes both oral and injectable formulations, as well as single and dual agonists. The company is expected to launch its innovative drug HRS9531 in 2026 after filing for NDA by the end of 2025 [3][13]. - The oral peptide HRS9531 has shown promising preliminary efficacy, with a placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of -3.5% at Day 29, comparable to orforglipron's -3%. However, it is less effective than Hengrui's injectable HRS-7535, which achieved -5.5% weight loss at week 4 [2][3]. - The injectable form of HRS9531 demonstrated durable weight loss, achieving a placebo-adjusted weight loss of -16.7% at week 24 and maintaining weight stability from week 32 to week 52, with changes ranging from -0.76% to 0.01% [3]. Summary by Sections Product Efficacy - The oral form of HRS9531 showed comparable efficacy to orforglipron, with a weight loss of -3.5% at Day 29, while the injectable form achieved a weight loss of -9.3% at week 4 [2][7]. - The injectable HRS9531 has completed patient enrollment for phase 3 clinical trials and is expected to file for NDA by the end of 2025 [3]. Market Position - Hengrui's competitive advantage lies in its diverse product portfolio and commercial capabilities in metabolic diseases, which could create synergies in the market [3][13]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth, with estimates of Rmb30.37 billion in 2025 and Rmb37.09 billion in 2027 [15].