广金期货策略早餐-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - Intraday View: Slight rebound [1] - Medium - term View: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - Reference Strategy: Short after the rebound [1] - Core Logic: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - Intraday View: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - Medium - term View: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - Reference Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - Core Logic: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - Intraday View: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - Medium - term View: Face pressure [5] - Reference Strategy: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - Core Logic: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - Intraday View: Show a warm trend [8] - Medium - term View: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - Reference Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - Core Logic: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].