2025年5月金融数据点评：双降过后如何宽信用

Loan Data - In May, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, with a total loan balance growing by 7.1% year-on-year[8] - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 74.6 billion yuan[9] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 170 billion yuan[10] Social Financing - In May, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, with a TSF stock growth rate of 8.7%[13] - Government bonds were the main contributor to TSF growth, with net financing of 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan[13] - The TSF pulse improved to -13.3% in May from -15.1% in April, indicating a potential bottoming out[14] Monetary Supply - In May, M2 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 2.3%, with the M2-M1 growth rate difference narrowing to 5.6%[18] - The increase in deposits was 2.18 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 470 billion yuan and corporate deposits decreasing by 417.6 billion yuan[18] Market Signals - The bond market is awaiting key signals from US-China trade negotiations and incremental reserve policies to address low inflation[21] - The central bank's liquidity management aims to maintain ample liquidity, regardless of the method used, including reverse repos and open market operations[23]