兼评5月经济数据：以旧换新资金进度约42%

Consumption - The "trade-in" program continues to show effectiveness, with subsidy fund progress estimated at approximately 42% for May[3] - Retail sales in May increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The contribution breakdown of retail sales shows that major categories like home appliances and communication equipment contributed 0.27 and 0.20 percentage points respectively[3] Production - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, despite a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The supply-demand structure remains poor, with the industrial enterprise production-sales rate at 95.3%, the lowest level for the same period in history[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.7% in May, indicating a worsening trend[6] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily affected by sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery[6] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth, with special bond issuance progress at 39.0% as of June 15[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in policy and a possible recession in the U.S. economy[7]