中东冲突显著升级，避险属性支撑金价走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks support the upward trend of precious metals, and the long-term positive logic remains unchanged. Gold may continue its strong performance in the short term, while silver will maintain a consolidation trend due to industrial demand constraints [3][4][5] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, and the market should focus on short-term geopolitical changes and policy signals from the upcoming FOMC meeting [3][17][19] - Central banks' gold purchases are expected to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to maintain a net inflow [3][45] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3,450 mark, while silver consolidated at a high level with a slight decline, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded [5] - US inflation data cooled down comprehensively, and employment data weakened, pushing up the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which supported the rise of precious metals [5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East escalated sharply, and the risk aversion mood pushed up the premium of gold [5] Macro - Financial Factors - Dollar Index: This week, the dollar index continued to weaken, reaching a low of 97.60. On Friday, due to the sudden change in the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the dollar index ended its continuous decline [3][15] - Fed Interest Rate: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is 23.1%, and the probability in September has risen to 71.3%, with an expectation of two rate cuts within the year [3][17][19] - US Economic Indicators: US manufacturing and service industries showed signs of weakness. The employment market also showed signs of softening, and inflation data was lower than expected [24][28][31] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025 due to limited mine production increases and low recycling rates [4] - Demand: Central banks, especially the Chinese central bank, have resumed increasing their gold holdings, and it is expected that funds from central banks will continue to flow in. The demand from central banks is expected to support gold prices [3][45] Asset Attributes - Monetary Attribute: The weakening of the dollar index and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates support the rise of precious metals [3][15] - Financial Attribute: The increase in the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates and the central banks' gold - buying behavior are positive for gold prices [3][17] - Commodity Attribute: The gold SPDR持仓量 increased slightly, and the silver SLV持仓量 changed little. The silver market is in short supply, and the inventory situation of gold and silver varies [3][4][46] Operation Suggestions - Gold: In the short term, supported by geopolitical risks, the trend is strong. In the long - term, the positive logic remains unchanged. If there is a correction to the lower integer pressure level, one can consider building long - term positions through the option ratio spread structure [3] - Silver: After breaking through a new high this week, it entered an adjustment phase. In the short term, there is still a supplementary increase structure. In the medium - term, pay attention to the balance between the safe - haven attribute and industrial demand under the Middle East conflict. Long positions in silver can use the bear spread structure to hedge against correction risks. If the short - term volatility and price continue to rise significantly, one can build a call option selling position above to lock in profits [4] Other Key Information - Gold - Silver Ratio: As the price of gold rose this week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly. If the gold - silver ratio drops significantly in the short term, one can consider going long [70]