财税重塑系列之四：财政的“后手”

Revenue and Expenditure Targets - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, below the annual target of 1.3%[10] - The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years[10] - General public budget expenditure from January to April reached 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth rate of 4.4%[16] Government Financing and Deficit - The narrow fiscal deficit for January to April was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%[24] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 2.65 trillion yuan, with a usage rate of 19%, slightly above the average of 17.8% for the past five years[27] - Net financing of ordinary government bonds in the first five months was 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target, the highest since 2015[30] Special Bonds and Policy Support - The issuance of special bonds has been slower this year, with a progress rate of 37.1% in the first five months, lower than the levels of 2022 and 2023[32] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at 1.3 trillion yuan, with 363 billion yuan issued by the end of May, achieving a completion rate of 27.9%[32] - The proportion of special bonds used for land reserves has increased, with nearly 110 billion yuan issued, accounting for 7% of special bonds[36] Future Policy Outlook - The estimated revenue gap for broad fiscal income in 2025 is approximately 550 billion yuan, indicating a potential need for additional policy support if revenue performance does not improve[43] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and infrastructure projects[56]