Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-17 09:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that on the macro - front, the market's risk - aversion sentiment has weakened due to Iran's desire to dialogue with the US and Israel. China's economic data shows mixed trends with positive growth in some aspects like industrial增加值 and retail sales, but negative trends in real estate investment. Fundamentally, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing. On the supply side, high raw material prices and falling nickel prices have led some non - integrated smelters to cut production. On the demand side, stainless steel mills' profits are compressed, and the demand for new energy vehicles, though rising, has limited impact. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, with domestic inventory decreasing and overseas inventory stable. Technically, the increase in short - position holdings indicates a bearish bias, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak. The recommended operation is to wait and see or take a light short position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,570 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 190 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,065 dollars/ton, down 45 dollars. - The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 83,823 lots, up 4,100 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,746 lots, down 6,961 lots. - LME nickel inventory is 204,936 tons, up 1,986 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,693 tons (weekly), up 77 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,241 tons, down 109 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 119,825 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 119,900 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the NI main contract is 1,255 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 203.75 dollars/ton, down 11.93 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, up 137.89 million tons. - The total port inventory of nickel ore is 721.87 million tons (weekly), up 25.01 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 78.86 dollars/ton, down 32.99 dollars. - The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. - The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, up 10,187.11 tons. - The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 81.69 million tons, down 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 61.92 million tons, up 0.78 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to May, China's real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed negative growth, while the unsold area decreased in May. - In May, China's industrial增加值 of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [2].