瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and the impact on iron ore needs further attention. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil declined this period, while domestic port inventories increased. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output of steel mills continued to decline, weakening the support for iron ore demand. The short - term may maintain range - bound trading, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 699.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.50 yuan; the position of the I main contract was 675,663 lots, a decrease of 9,829 lots; the price difference between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 51,664 lots, a decrease of 13,822 lots; the warehouse receipt of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,100.00 lots, an increase of 400.00 lots; the quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 92.65 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.42 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 761 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 673 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 62 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.56, unchanged; the estimated import cost was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,352.70 million tons, a decrease of 157.70 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.50 million tons, a decrease of 156.40 million tons; the inventory at 45 ports was 13,933.14 million tons, an increase of 106.45 million tons; the inventory of sample steel mills was 8,798.68 million tons, an increase of 108.50 million tons; the monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.10 million tons, a decrease of 500.90 million tons; the available days of iron ore were 22 days, an increase of 5 days; the daily output of 266 mines was 38.98 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 61.42%, an increase of 0.23%; the inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines was 58.33 million tons, a decrease of 4.46 million tons; the BDI index was 1,975.00, an increase of 7.00; the freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 26.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.49 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 11.05 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.08 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, a decrease of 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, a decrease of 0.07%; the monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, an increase of 53 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.40%, an increase of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.98%, an increase of 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.16%, a decrease of 1.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.38%, a decrease of 3.56% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment was 3,352.7 million tons, a decrease of 157.7 million tons compared with the previous period. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2,842.1 million tons, with Australian shipments of 2,059.3 million tons, a decrease of 110.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,797.1 million tons, a decrease of 94.9 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 782.8 million tons, an increase of 33.2 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.5 million tons, a decrease of 156.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,384.5 million tons, a decrease of 77.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,219.0 million tons, a decrease of 164.6 million tons [2]