Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-17 09:02Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased slightly as the output of restored production capacity exceeds that of maintenance and production - cut capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises continued to rise last week due to insufficient transportation capacity in the northwest production area and slower enterprise shipping rhythm. The methanol port inventory increased as scheduled last week with smooth unloading of imported vessels. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry's operating rate has increased. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2370 - 2500 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2455 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the open interest of the main contract is 816410 lots, down 3696 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 55866 lots, up 28548 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 9759, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East - West price difference is 620 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 298 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 325 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 275 euros/ton, down 2 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 27 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.74 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.13 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 46.8 tons, up 4.57 tons; in South China ports, it is 18.42 tons, up 2.53 tons; the methanol import profit is - 15.77 yuan/ton, down 6.27 yuan; the monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 379100 tons, up 116900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 87.98%, down 0.14% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.89%, down 0.22%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.7%, down 1.82%; the acetic acid operating rate is 95.65%, up 17.78%; the MTBE operating rate is 59.7%, up 4.98%; the olefin operating rate is 88.56%, up 2.08%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1040 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.33%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.52%, down 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.16%, up 4.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.18%, up 4.17% [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.91 tons, up 0.86 tons from the previous period, a 2.33% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 30.21 tons, up 3.99 tons from the previous period, a 15.22% increase. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 65.22 tons, up 7.10 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 4.57 tons and 2.53 tons respectively [2]