瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the improved outlook of major sugar - producing countries in Asia with expected restorative production increases suppresses sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window raises future import pressure, pushing sugar prices down. However, approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption like cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices. The sugar futures market rebounds in the short - term following the external market, and future focus should be on arrivals at ports and summer consumption stimulants [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,691 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the main contract position is 369,312 lots, down 1,260 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 28,586, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 53,808 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is down 39 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is down 39 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,865 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 6,030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Liuzhou is 6,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,110.72 million tons, up 36.01 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, up 124.88 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 225.66 million tons, up 70.4 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,452 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 222 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.82%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.77%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.18%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.94%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association shows that in the second half of May, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 47.843 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; produced 2.951 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 8.86%; ethanol production decreased by 3.12% year - on - year to 2.057 billion liters. Sugar mills used 51.85% of sugarcane for sugar production, compared with 48.2% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar output per ton of sugarcane decreased by 4.06% year - on - year to 124.87 kg/ton [2].