Shanxi Securities·2025-06-17 09:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 China potash fertilizer sea freight import contract has been finalized at a price of $346 per ton CFR, which is an increase of $73 per ton compared to last year's price of $273 per ton CFR. This price is $3 per ton lower than the new contract price signed by India. The contract signing was in line with market expectations and is expected to enhance supply chain security for potash fertilizer, supporting agricultural stability and national food security [4][12][23]. - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, which may affect the supply of certain chemical products imported from Iran. The report suggests monitoring products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, such as polyethylene, methanol, and potassium chloride [5][13][23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Market - The report highlights the completion of the potash fertilizer import contract and the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices. The contract price for potash fertilizer is set at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [4][12]. - The report also provides data on China's chemical imports from Iran and Israel, indicating that polyethylene and methanol are among the top imported products from Iran, while potassium chloride is significant from Israel [5][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Sinochem Fertilizer: Potential benefits from policy dividends related to state reserve management. 2. Yara International: Expected to benefit from high prices due to low-cost resources and high certainty in expansion. 3. Products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, including polyethylene, methanol, sulfur, potassium chloride, and bromine [6][23]. Market Performance - The report includes performance metrics for various chemical sectors, noting that textile chemical products, compound fertilizers, and inorganic salts have shown the highest weekly increases, while viscose and other chemical raw materials have seen declines [18][19]. - Key companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Sinochem Fertilizer and China Petroleum, have also shown positive market performance, with notable weekly increases [21][22].