5月经济运行总体平稳,税期资金面保持宽松,债市以震荡为主
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-06-17 09:24

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the central bank had continuous net injections, keeping the funds in the tax - payment period loose. The bond market was mainly in a volatile state, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. The main indices of the convertible bond market collectively rose, and most convertible bond individual securities increased. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In May, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year - on - year [3]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year - on - year respectively [4]. - The central bank launched two outright reverse repurchase operations in June, achieving a net injection of 200 billion yuan. It will also issue 30 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on June 18 [5][6]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to standardize the issuance and underwriting of the inter - bank bond market and held a symposium to support the high - quality development of automobile enterprises [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The Senate version of the Republican bill proposed to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, up from the $4 trillion in the House - passed version. It also made three corporate tax breaks permanent. The Senate is expected to vote on the draft next week [7]. - On June 16, WTI July crude oil futures fell 1.66% to $71.77 per barrel, Brent August crude oil futures fell 1.35% to $73.23 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.63% to $3.741 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Funds 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection of funds was 68.2 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funds Rates - On June 16, the central bank's continuous net injections kept the funds in the tax - payment period loose. DR001 decreased by 2.16bp to 1.391%, and DR007 increased by 2.41bp to 1.526%. Other rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - The bond market was mainly volatile on June 16, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. Yields of some active bonds showed different changes, such as the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011's yield declining by 0.20bp to 1.6400%, and the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210's yield rising by 1.15bp to 1.7150% [13][14]. - Information on bond tendering includes details such as the term, issuance scale, winning yield, and multiples of several bonds [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On June 16, the trading prices of 2 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond deviated by more than 10%. For example, "21 Zhengtou PPN001" fell by more than 49%, and "H9 Longkong 01" rose by more than 48% [15][16]. - There were various credit - bond events, including announcements from companies such as Oceanwide Capital, Ganglong China Real Estate, and Fangyuan Real Estate [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On June 16, the three major A - share indices all closed up, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 69.161 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most individual convertible bonds rose [18][19][20]. - There were announcements such as the listing of Hengshuai Convertible Bond on June 17 and Huicheng Convertible Bond's announcement of not redeeming in advance [25]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the U.S. Treasury bond market on June 16, yields across various maturities generally increased. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1bp to 3.97%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 5bp to 4.46%. The yield spreads also changed [23][24]. - In the European bond market on June 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined, such as Germany's 10 - year government bond yield falling 1bp to 2.53% [27]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds shows the daily changes, credit subjects, and other details of the top 10 gainers and losers [29].