公用事业行业2025年中期投资策略：加快构建新型电力系统，关注细分领域机会

Group 1: Overview of Public Utility Index Performance - The Shenwan Public Utility Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index, with a decline of 0.68% year-to-date as of June 16, 2023, which is 0.87 percentage points better than the CSI 300 Index, ranking 19th among 31 Shenwan industries [2][9] - Among the sub-sectors of the Shenwan Public Utility Index, four sectors have increased, including Heat Service (+8.44%), Comprehensive Electric Service (+2.98%), Thermal Power (+2.24%), and Hydropower (+0.86%), while three sectors have decreased, including Photovoltaic Power (-6.02%), Gas (-4.29%), and Wind Power (-2.21%) [2][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shenwan Public Utility Index is approximately 18.42 times, which is below the historical average of 26.61 times over the past decade, placing it at the 13th percentile historically [2][13] Group 2: Coal Power Sector Insights - The establishment of a capacity price mechanism for coal power will facilitate the recovery of fixed costs for compliant coal power units, which are essential for supporting the electricity system during the green transition [2][21] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) has decreased by 7% year-on-year, averaging 685 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2023, which is expected to enhance the performance of coal power companies [2][28] - Companies such as Huadian International (600027) and Guodian Power (600795) are recommended for attention due to their potential benefits from the capacity price mechanism and declining coal prices [2][21] Group 3: Renewable Energy Development - The Chinese government is actively promoting renewable energy through various policies, aiming to enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption by constructing smart microgrid projects and shared energy storage stations [2][37] - The installed capacity of wind power is projected to grow from 184 GW at the end of 2018 to 521 GW by the end of 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19%, while solar power capacity is expected to increase from 174 GW to 887 GW, with a CAGR of 31% [2][41] - Companies such as Three Gorges Energy (600905) and Longyuan Power (001289) are highlighted as key players in the renewable energy sector [2][21] Group 4: Hydropower Sector Developments - The installed capacity of hydropower in China is expected to grow from 370 million kW at the end of 2020 to 436 million kW by the end of 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 4% [2][39] - Hydropower companies are increasingly focusing on cash dividends, with nine out of eleven listed hydropower companies planning to return profits to shareholders through cash dividends in 2024 [2][21] - Recommended companies in the hydropower sector include Yangtze Power (600900), Huaneng Hydropower (600025), and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [2][21]