Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-17 09:37Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP2509 fell and then rebounded, closing at 7,125 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's PP output increased by 2.36% week-on-week to 775,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.63% week-on-week to 78.64%. On the demand side, last week's average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.04% week-on-week to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, last week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% week-on-week to 786,000 tons, at a neutral level compared to the same period in the past three years. This week, units such as Zhongying Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical are scheduled for maintenance, and output and capacity utilization are expected to decline week-on-week, but the situation of loose spot supply is difficult to change. During the off - season for downstream industries, demand remains weak, and the downstream operating rate shows a slight downward trend. Overseas demand is seasonally weak with limited support. In terms of cost, although many countries have expressed willingness to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict, the conflict has intensified recently, and international oil prices are fluctuating widely at a high level. In the short term, fundamentals have little impact on the PP futures market, and PP2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7,050 and the resistance around 7,190 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main PP futures contract was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,057 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,043 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The trading volume of PP was 314,038 lots, down 84,174 lots; the open interest was 455,542 lots, down 4,930 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 398,839 lots, down 5,490 lots; the short positions were 466,479 lots, down 9,147 lots; the net long positions were - 67,640 lots, up 3,657 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,560 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price of PP (wire drawing grade) in Zhejiang was 7,200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 761 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Far East price of propane was 595 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 67.9 US dollars/barrel, up 0.79 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 624.13 US dollars/ton, up 3.63 US dollars [2] Industrial Situation - The operating rate of PP in petrochemical enterprises was 78.64%, up 1.63 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of PP was 49.97%, down 0.04 percentage points; the operating rate of PP in plastic weaving was 44.4%, down 0.3 percentage points; in injection molding was 56.09%, unchanged; in BOPP was 60.41%, unchanged; in PP pipes was 36.03%, down 0.1 percentage points; in tape mother rolls was 49.52%, down 1.22 percentage points; in PP non - woven fabrics was 37.15%, up 0.12 percentage points; in CPP was 57.63%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PP was 9.48%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.97%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 11.49%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 11.45%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, domestic PP output was 775,600 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period, and the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, up 1.63 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream PP industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of Chinese PP was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2]