瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The high profit of liquid caustic soda offsets the positive impact of concentrated maintenance within the month, and the commissioning of plants from June to July brings an expectation of intensified medium - and long - term supply pressure. The profit growth of downstream alumina slows down, the supply of raw material bauxite is tight, and some enterprises are cautious about increasing production. Non - aluminum demand has weak rigid demand and resists high prices. Currently, the inventory pressure is relatively high. The cost of thermal coal for self - supplied power plants lacks support in the short term. The weak expectation of caustic soda spot is being realized, and the spot price in Shandong has declined recently. The futures price is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 2230 - 2340 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2273 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the futures holding volume is 287,509 lots, up 459 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 23,570 lots, up 1591 lots; the futures trading volume is 444,883 lots, down 27,019 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2328 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2656.25 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is 321 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. As of June 12th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11% [1]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side: Multiple sets of devices in North China were shut down or reduced in load last week, and the industry capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.5% to 80.9%. The demand side: The alumina start - up rate increased by 0.52% to 80.87% last week; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 80.56%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 61.36%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 5.52% to 382,100 tons last week. The profit of chlor - alkali was around 613 yuan/ton last week, with considerable profitability [1].