瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply - side, Yunnan, Sichuan and other regions are gradually entering the wet season, with an advantage in electricity price costs. Last week, production increased slightly and capacity utilization began to rise, and large enterprises started to increase production during the wet season. From the demand - side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market's spot price continues to decline, but enterprises are still increasing production during the wet season, and it is expected that production may increase slightly this week, which is partially beneficial to industrial silicon. The polysilicon sector is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand for industrial silicon has declined. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support, but enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices weakening, and it is difficult to drive up demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a flat trend. The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts has declined, and the large number of warehouse receipts has brought huge delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position of the main contract is 318,893 lots, a decrease of 4,470 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,302 lots, an increase of 2,564 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 56,823 lots, a decrease of 1,097 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 40 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; social inventory is 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons; monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4,900 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.36 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is - 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 66.28%, an increase of 7.61 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, a decrease of 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hubei Yiheng's 80,000 - ton organic silicon new material project is expected to start trial production in July this year, which will promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial chain [2]