Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-17 09:31Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the festival, eggs enter the seasonal demand off - season, with high laying - hen inventory and great pressure from newly - laid eggs of previously replenished hens, resulting in sufficient egg supply [2]. - Affected by hot and humid weather, egg storage costs increase, downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, egg prices remain low compared to the same period, and the farming sector continues to incur losses [2]. - The expectation of loose supply is reflected in the futures market, and the futures price valuation is generally not high. If the spot price remains low, it may boost the enthusiasm for old - hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the forward price [2]. - The futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover after reaching the low - valuation area. It is advisable to lightly test long positions in forward contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3,545 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 37 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,585 lots, an increase of 4,069 lots [2]. - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 38 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 36 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 235,228 lots, a decrease of 4,622 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.77 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 779 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 116 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 112.35 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.09; the national culled laying - hen index is 96.76 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.67 [2]. - The average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 4.1 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 138.68 (2015 = 100), an increase of 23.55 [2]. - The average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.74 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - chicken farming profit is - 0.55 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.11 yuan [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.12 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan; the national culled - chicken age is 510 days, a decrease of 6 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.23 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan [2]. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 16.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.31 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.05 days, an increase of 0.02 days [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.03 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 8,194 tons, a decrease of 662 tons [2]. Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.54 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.21 yuan; in Hebei, it is 5.28 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 5.70 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan [2]. Key Focus - Pay attention to the impact of the spot price on the laying - hen inventory. There is no news today [2].