沥青策略：单边观望、做多沥青09-12价差

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of unilateral waiting and going long on the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread. However, due to the large fluctuations of crude oil affected by geopolitical risks, cautious operation is required [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and continued to rise, being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. In June, local refineries are expected to produce 1.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons (5.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons (39.3%) [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt remained flat at 25.6% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 7.98% week - on - week to 272,000 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The demand in the north performed well, while the south was still affected by intermittent rainfall and funds were still restricted [1]. - Market environment: The negotiation on the US - Iran nuclear agreement has reached a deadlock and has been indefinitely suspended. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and Israel and Iran have attacked each other, expanding the targets to energy facilities, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The panic about the global trade war has eased, but the shadow of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. The Trump administration has issued a simplified license to Chevron, allowing it to stay in Venezuela for minimal equipment maintenance but banning oil production. Attention should be paid to the changes in Venezuela's crude oil exports. Recently, asphalt has followed crude oil to fluctuate strongly, but crude oil fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.03% to 3,644 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,655 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6,817 to 259,759 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 156 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou resumed production intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to rise and being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate declined slightly compared with that from January to March 2025, still being negative. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.9%, a slight decline from - 0.2% from January to March 2025. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, the same as that from January to March 2025 [4]. - Fiscal policy: The government work report proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from the previous year. It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state - owned commercial banks. It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The total newly - added government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.6% compared with the week of June 6, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].