铝产业周报：氧化铝震荡偏弱，电解铝或高位回落，铝合金维持震荡运行-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term and short positions on rallies are recommended in the medium - to - long - term due to eased supply tightness of bauxite, weakened cost support, and limited demand growth [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with attention on the pressure at the 20,500 level, as production capacity remains high, demand has not significantly recovered, and social inventory is extremely low [8]. - ADC12 aluminum alloy is likely to be volatile in the short - term and short positions on rallies are suggested in the medium - to - long - term, considering the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, high inventory, and the impact of US tariff policies [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 View and Strategy - Alumina: The overall supply tightness of bauxite in China is gradually alleviated by imported ores, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. It is in a situation of strong supply and demand, but demand growth is limited, so it may be volatile and weak in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Production capacity is at an extremely high level, but total demand has not significantly recovered. Social inventory is decreasing and at a very low level. Affected by positive signals from China - US talks, the price once rose to 20,500. It may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of ADC12 is gradually forming, with high inventory and demand suppressed by US tariff policies. Only wheel hub export orders are good. The industry is in a loss state, providing some support for prices. It may be volatile in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. 3.2 Market Review - Due to positive signals from China - US talks, LME aluminum first rose and then fell, with a 2.1% increase compared to last week, and SHFE aluminum continued to rise, with a 1.84% increase. Alumina was weakly volatile, with a 1.69% decline [11][16]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite prices remained stable, with prices in Guizhou at 500 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 530 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 450 yuan/ton. Overseas, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite remained at $80/ton, and that of Australian bauxite fell to $69/ton. Inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 26.43 million tons, a 300,000 - ton increase [21]. - Alumina: Some regional prices fell slightly. The import profit and loss recovered to around 12 yuan/ton, and future imports will remain weak. Production cost decreased to 2,845 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to around 450 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate but remained at the lowest level in the past four years [26][31][36]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, and spot premiums and discounts in various regions fell significantly. Aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, reaching 141,000 tons. SHFE and LME inventories were at extremely low levels [44][49][52]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking of Aluminum Alloy - ADC12: Spot prices in various regions mainly rose to 19,600 yuan/ton. In May, domestic scrap aluminum shipments reached 59,010 tons, at a very high level in the past five years, and raw material supply was sufficient. From January to April, the cumulative import volume of aluminum scrap was 697,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.66% but a continuous slowdown in growth. In May, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 41.32%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 38.04%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots reached 513,500 tons, at a very high level in the past five years. The average cost of ADC12 in May fell to 19,537 yuan/ton, and production profit fell to 173 yuan/ton. Social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, with the former at a medium level and the latter at the highest level in the past three years [57][61][65]