Changjiang Securities·2025-06-17 10:14Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to rising temperatures and electricity consumption, with expectations for price recovery in the future [2][25]. - The report notes a significant decrease in coal imports, attributed to high domestic coal prices and increased port inventories [12][15]. Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in May reached 40.328 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [6][15]. - Coal imports in May were 36.04 million tons, down 17.75% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month, with cumulative imports from January to May at 18.867 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year [15][23]. Demand Summary - In May, thermal power generation increased by 1.2% year-on-year, reaching 737.8 billion kWh, with a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [25][27]. - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in the cement sector, saw a decline, with May production at 16.5 million tons, down 8.1% year-on-year [29][34]. Future Outlook - For thermal coal, there is potential for price recovery due to inventory depletion and seasonal demand increases, with a focus on upcoming weather conditions and renewable energy output [2][25]. - For coking coal, the report anticipates a seasonal decline in iron and steel demand, which may limit upward price movements, although there is potential for a rebound if inflation expectations improve or policy stimulus occurs [2][35]. Marginal Allocation Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [12][35].