Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The copper price has faced upward resistance and has not broken through the oscillation range. The supply side remains stable, while the downstream demand is marginally weakening, and the inventory depletion has slowed down. Geopolitical conflicts have increased macro - uncertainty. Currently, the copper price is in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the implementation of Sino - US copper tariffs [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Geopolitical tensions have increased economic uncertainty. The year - on - year increase in domestic social retail sales reached the highest since December 2023, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to May, urban fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [1]. - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has increased, and the negative value of domestic smelting fees has expanded, indicating a potential reduction in production. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the market is cautious at high prices, the downstream operating rate has slowed down, and the household appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk [1]. - Overall, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is weakening, the inventory depletion has slowed down, and the copper price has not broken through the oscillation range. It is expected to remain in the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed slightly higher, at 78,570. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,558 to 127,151 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,873 to 115,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China was 220 yuan/ton. On June 16, 2025, the LME official price was $9,670/ton, and the spot premium was $68/ton [4]. Supply Side As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.91/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.40 cents/pound [5]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 36,300 tons, an increase of 3,484 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 54,500 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 107,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 197,400 short tons, an increase of 1,315 short tons from the previous period [9].
上行受阻，尚未突破震荡区间
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-06-17 10:51