情绪高涨，盘面继续反弹

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The urea fundamentals remain loose. The current rebound is mainly driven by increased purchases from traders at low prices and the strengthening of the energy - chemical sector stimulated by the Israel - Iran conflict, mostly led by market sentiment with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The upward trend may not be sustainable, but the upcoming agricultural demand and export will limit the price movement range [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market continued to rebound by nearly 4% today, and upstream factory prices increased to varying degrees, boosting market sentiment and downstream trading atmosphere. The price increase this week was also affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, which stimulated the domestic price through the expectation of international supply disruption. - On the supply side, the daily production of urea remained above 200,000 tons, with narrow long - term fluctuations, suppressing the upward movement of the market. - On the demand side, agricultural fertilizer preparation improved, with corn top - dressing in the Northeast about to start and agricultural demand in North China expected to start next month. The compound fertilizer factories had a decreased operating load, slow progress in autumn fertilizer production, and difficulty in inventory reduction, resulting in weak demand for urea. - Last week's inventory data showed an increase in factory inventory. After the export of goods at the end of the month, the inventory pressure will be relieved [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton and closed at 1774 yuan/ton, up 3.99%. The trading volume was 285,825 lots (+6,801 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 6,383 lots and short positions decreased by 8,785 lots. For example, Guotai Junan's net long positions increased by 4,697 lots, and Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 5,624 lots [2]. - Spot: Upstream factory prices increased, and the market sentiment improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1740 - 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rebounded. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract weakened by 11 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Supply: On June 17, 2025, the national daily urea production was 202,500 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. - Warehouse Receipts: On June 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,810, a decrease of 112 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 82, and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 30 [3].