“以旧换新”蓄动力，_过境免签”新亮点

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month, indicating a stable economic performance[16] - The demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown, aligning with prior assessments[16] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a recovery in consumer spending[21] - Policy-driven consumption, particularly in home appliances and cultural products, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 30.5% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales increase[25] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth remains at 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[32] - Manufacturing investment growth is at 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decrease, influenced by uncertainties in the market due to U.S. tariff policies[48] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with expectations of a slight economic slowdown in Q2 to around 5.2%-5.3%[3] - The potential for a recovery in market sentiment is anticipated in Q3 if U.S. tariff policies stabilize or improve, possibly leading to new investment opportunities[3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains under pressure, with property sales declining by 4.41% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is showing signs of slowing[35] - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004.44 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating a need for price stabilization[35] Future Outlook - If U.S.-China trade negotiations yield positive results, there could be a restoration of market risk appetite, benefiting exports and overall economic recovery[57] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is critical for observing potential policies aimed at stabilizing growth amid external pressures[58]