有色金属日报-20250617

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ and "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "文文文" [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "なな☆" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of non - ferrous metals shows different trends in various sub - industries. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost factors, with corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Tuesday. After delivery, the spot copper was reported at 78,715 yuan. After the month - change, the premium in Shanghai was 240 yuan, lower than the same period last month. The London copper oscillated steadily relying on the MA20 moving average. The visible inventories in the US and London markets showed a strong seesaw effect. The total inventory of the two markets was about 300,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 - 50,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year. Short - sellers should consider changing positions to the 2508 contract and stop losses above 79,500 [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. After delivery and month - change, the spot premium in East China was 210 yuan. On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 200 tons, while that of aluminum rods increased by 400 tons, showing signs of a slowdown in destocking. The current strong reality and weak expectation deepened the Back structure, which was beneficial to long - positions in the short term. After the index position soared to 600,000 lots, beware of the change in capital direction. After Shanghai aluminum filled the previous gap, there was no strong upward driving force technically. Cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy widened to 1,000 yuan, providing a good opportunity to narrow the price difference. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 on the disk fluctuated between 400 - 500 yuan. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina dropped to 3,100 - 3,200 yuan. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. The domestic operating capacity had increased for four consecutive weeks to over 9.2 million tons. Under the pressure of over - supply, the futures continued to be weak [2] Zinc - The capital congestion of Shanghai zinc was still high. Some short - sellers took profits, driving the disk to rebound. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 13,600 lots to 280,500 lots, and the capital outflow was 245 million yuan. Consumption was advanced, and there was a downward pressure on demand in June compared with the previous month. The previously overhauled smelters resumed production one after another, and new production capacity was put into operation. Against the background of increasing supply and weak demand, zinc should be mainly short - sold on rebounds [3] Aluminum - Due to weak demand and the expectation of some secondary aluminum smelters to resume production, long - sellers reduced their positions on Tuesday. Shanghai aluminum failed to effectively break through the key pressure level of 17,000 yuan. The SMM1 aluminum was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the near - month disk, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The downstream showed good enthusiasm for inquiring at low prices. The spot import window was still closed. The tight supply of aluminum concentrate and waste batteries provided strong cost support. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [5] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined steadily, and the market trading was active. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,500 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 250 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was reported at 933 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support weakened significantly. In terms of inventory, the inventory of nickel ferro - nickel increased by 3,000 tons to 34,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory remained flat at 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 25,000 tons to 999,000 tons. Shanghai nickel was in a short - selling trend, and short - sellers should mainly hold their positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed down. The spot tin was reported at 264,000 yuan. Both domestic and foreign tin prices were blocked at the MA60 moving average. Indonesia's tin exports continued to increase in May, and the production capacity affected by the natural gas supply interruption in Malaysia in April restarted, depressing the tin price. Overall, although the technical pattern of the tin market was stable, the trend direction was not significant between the supply - demand reality and expectations. Some short - sellers reduced their positions and held them in the far - month contracts [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated at a low level. The market trading was dull. The downstream material manufacturers had weak purchasing enthusiasm and no further intention to stock up, waiting for the price to decline further. The price game between the upstream and downstream led to a continuous low trading activity in the market, and the psychological price gap between buyers and sellers was obvious. The total market inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 133,500 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 400 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 500 tons to 58,000 tons, and the intermediate link increased inventory by 1,000 tons. The short - selling core driving force was stagnant, and it was regarded as a short - term shock [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,360 yuan/ton. Currently, the quotations of silicon enterprises remained stable. The disk price was inverted below the industry's lowest cost line and lower than the manufacturers' quotations. Last week, the shipment situation of the delivery warehouse improved, and the downstream had certain replenishment behavior. Some short - sellers on the disk closed their positions to boost the rebound, and some long - sellers took profits and left the market. The current market sentiment was cautious, and the upward and downward spaces were limited. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of production of large factories at the beginning of the month advanced, and there might be further production increases in Xinjiang in the future. Although the downstream demand improved marginally, the increase was difficult to offset the increase in supply. The main trend was still bearish, and it was advisable to hold a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. The SMM re -投料 spot quotation was 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sentiment in the downstream silicon wafer market was relatively low, and the production schedule in June was expected to be reduced by about 2GW. In contrast, the production schedule of polysilicon in June increased by 4,800 tons month - on - month to about 100,000 tons. If the production continued to increase, it would further increase the inventory pressure. Silicon wafer enterprises generally suffered losses, and their acceptance of high - price polysilicon raw materials decreased. It was expected that the polysilicon spot price would face pressure, and the disk trend would remain oscillating weakly [10]