Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply and demand analysis and annual outlook of butadiene in China, covering upstream supply, downstream demand, and annual supply - demand balance [3][47] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - China's butadiene self - sufficiency rate has been above 90%, but there is still a supply - demand gap. The capacity is expanding, with an expected 761.7 million tons/year by the end of 2025, a 14.77% year - on - year increase [3][11] - In 2025, both upstream and downstream of butadiene have new projects. The downstream production growth rate is lower than the upstream, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [3][51] Summary by Directory Butadiene Upstream Supply Analysis Butadiene Capacity Historical Changes and Current Situation - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity expanded rapidly from 178.9 million tons to 359.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.46%. It was mainly due to the development of the ethylene industry and new device launches [9] - From 2015 - 2016, the capacity growth rate declined, and some backward small - scale devices exited [9] - From 2017 - 2020, the capacity recovered, and the import dependence gradually decreased [10] - Since 2021, the industry has entered a mature development stage, with technological progress and a shift towards high - end products [10] - By the end of 2025, the capacity is expected to reach 761.7 million tons/year, with a 98 - million - ton new capacity this year [11][12] Butadiene Production and Imports and Exports - The self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the upstream device operating rate is stable at around 70%. In 2024, the production was 470 million tons, a 2.02% year - on - year increase. The expected nominal production growth rate this year is 9% [14] - The import dependence is stable at around 7%, mainly from South Korea, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. The import volume is expected to decline this year [14] Butadiene Downstream Demand Main Areas Analysis Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - From 2009 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 22.17%. From 2015 - 2021, the growth slowed down, and in 2016, the total capacity decreased. Since 2022, the capacity has recovered, with a 20 - million - ton new device planned in 2025 [18] - The production profit has been low since last year, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. The production profit may recover due to a lower production growth rate than butadiene [24] Styrene - Butadiene Rubber - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 14.5%. From 2015 - 2024, the growth slowed down, and in 2019 and 2024, the total capacity decreased. In 2025, a 40 - million - ton new device is planned [28][30] - The production profit improved in the first half of this year but recently declined. With more new projects, the profit is expected to weaken, and the operating rate may be affected [33] ABS - Since 2021, the capacity has been expanding, with high growth rates in 2021 - 2023 and a lower but still positive growth in 2024. The production declined in 2024, and the annual operating rate was lower [35] - The production profit was negative in 2024 on average but is currently positive, which may support the operating rate this year [35] SBS - Currently, the new capacity is stable, with a 55.5 - million - ton new capacity planned in 2025 [40] - The production gross profit is at a low level, and the operating rate is expected to be the same as last year due to weak domestic consumption [42] Nitrile Rubber - From 2008 - 2012, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 33%. From 2013 - 2021, it developed steadily, with an average growth rate of 1%. Since 2022, the growth has slowed to 7% [43] - In 2025, a 4 - million - ton new device was launched, and 3 - million - ton old capacity exited, with a net increase of 1 - million - ton. The production profit is expected to recover, and the operating rate may increase [45] Butadiene Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Outlook - In 2025, butadiene is expected to have a 98 - million - ton new capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.77%. The downstream production growth rate is lower, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [47][51] - The port inventory accounts for about 34% of the domestic social inventory on average since 2019, and the domestic social inventory accounts for about 7% of the annual cumulative production since 2016. So, the port inventory accounts for about 2.4% of the supply [3][54]
我国丁二烯供需分析及年度展望
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-17 11:46