国投期货能源日报-20250617

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, different energy products are affected in various ways. Investors should pay attention to supply risks and price fluctuations, and choose appropriate investment strategies based on product fundamentals and geopolitical situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Before the US and Iran resume negotiations, the Israel - Iran conflict shows no clear sign of downgrading. Although OPEC's effective idle capacity and OPEC+'s production increase elasticity can make up for Iran's oil exports in about 6 months, investors should focus on the risk of attacks on Iran's oil production and export facilities and short - term supply reduction [2] - Based on the market pricing performance in 2011 when Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the extreme upside risk of the Brent crude oil near - month contract points to $80 - 90 per barrel. Investors are advised to hold out - of - the - money call options for hedging and adopt a medium - term short strategy after the geopolitical situation eases [2] - Due to the direct impact of Middle East geopolitical risks on the supply of medium - sulfur crude oil, the tanker freight from the Middle East to China is supported, and the spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the pulse - like rise and subsequent decline of crude oil today, the upward trend of fuel - related futures has come to a halt [3] - The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil from ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited due to high valuation. The FU crack spread is expected to be under pressure [3] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains abundant, the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU crack spread declines when crude oil strengthens due to geopolitical premium [3] Asphalt - Today, oil prices fell from high levels, and asphalt mainly fluctuated. Due to the gradual consumption of crude oil quotas, the increase in production of local refineries lacks resilience. After the peak maintenance period, major refineries plan to increase the operation of deep - processing units, and the increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited [4] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly year - on - year from January to April, indicating a substantial boost in terminal demand soon [4] - The latest factory and social inventories of asphalt have both declined. The fundamental support factors for asphalt still exist, but the BU crack spread is under pressure before the risk of rising oil prices caused by geopolitical risks is eliminated [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is still intensifying, increasing the risk of Iran's LPG production and exports. The international market prices in the risk and remains strong [5] - Currently, China's chemical demand for LPG is still recovering, and attention should be paid to the pressure of declining margins after the increase in import costs. The mid - month arrival volume and refinery gas release are both increasing. If the geopolitical risk eases, the supply pressure will bring strong downward pressure [5] - The fundamental supply - side pressure remains, but the market has been oscillating strongly recently to price in the risk [5]