Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict continues, but it is likely to cool down. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, wait for the cooling event to find mid - term short - selling opportunities [2][3] - The short - term trading in the market is based on the geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, while the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil has temporarily retreated [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Short - term trading is based on geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, and the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic has temporarily retreated [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. There are signs of a peak on the daily K - line, and the hourly K - line has not reversed. The short - term support is at 490. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [4] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The supply of pure benzene at the cost end is sufficient, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The mid - term supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reduced positions and declined today but has not reversed. The hourly - level support is at 7315. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [7] (3) Rubber - Logic: The price of Thai cup rubber is 27% lower than the same period last year, and the supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is gradually being realized. The demand is extremely weak both at home and abroad. The mid - term bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [10] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The 14000 level is still a valid short - term pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still in a weak pattern of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. The price of raw material butadiene will be under pressure after the large - scale commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. The demand is as weak as that of rubber. The mid - term fundamentals are bearish, but it is easily disturbed by large fluctuations in crude oil in the short term [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It reduced positions and declined today, with some fluctuations near the short - term pressure of 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11640 [13] (5) PX - Logic: Some PX plants will resume production in June, and the demand side (PTA) will also restart the overhauled plants. The current PX inventory is low, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. It is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 6510 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [17] (6) PTA - Logic: The previously overhauled PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the polyester start - up has declined, and the de - stocking amplitude has narrowed. The fundamentals have weakened, but it is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 4610 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [20] (7) PP - Logic: The start - up of PP plants has increased, the supply is under pressure, and the order demand at the terminal demand end is weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil from the cost end recently [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support below is at 7060. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23] (8) Methanol - Logic: The Iranian methanol plants have stopped production, increasing supply - side disturbances. The domestic plants have high profits, and the domestic start - up remains at a historical high. The inventory has entered the accumulation stage [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 2365. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [25] (9) PVC - Logic: The overhaul volume is gradually decreasing, and the PVC start - up is expected to gradually increase. The terminal demand is still insufficient in the real - estate downward cycle, and the export expectation has weakened significantly. The bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today and has not reversed in the short term. The short - term pressure is still at 4880. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The overhauled plants at the supply end will gradually resume, and the polyester start - up at the demand end has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 4310. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [31] (11) Plastic - Logic: There is pressure from the commissioning of large plants in the mid - term, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The mid - term view is bearish, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 7220. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]
以伊冲突持续，等待降温信号
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-06-17 13:04