南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in Q2, with no significant increase in production during the off - season on the demand side. The production on the supply side shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices, potentially leading to a spiral decline [3]. - Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the high future production expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to industrial technology upgrades [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to oscillate between 57,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 21.3% over 3 years [2]. 3.2 Enterprise Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventories and risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the LC2509 lithium carbonate futures to lock in finished - product profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.3 Futures Market Changes - Lithium Carbonate Main Contract: The closing price was 59,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,606 lots, down 36,574 lots or 16.76%; the open interest was 307,335 lots, up 6,913 lots or 2.30% [8]. - LC2511 Contract: The closing price was 59,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. 3.4 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices - Lithium Ore: The prices of most lithium ore types remained stable, except for the fastmarkets lithium ore with Li2O:6% which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton or 0.4% [19]. - Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased by 0.08%, industrial - grade and battery - grade (micronized) lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.52% and 0.43% respectively [22]. 3.5 Lithium Industry Chain Spot Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 230 yuan/ton or 5.00%; the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and domestic prices increased by 244.96 yuan/ton or 16.99% [24]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Basis - The basis quotes of major lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., all decreased by 200 yuan for the LC2507 contract [26][27]. 3.7 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of most downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased slightly, while the prices of some products like lithium iron phosphate for specific uses and electrolytes remained stable [32][34]. 3.8 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 330 lots to 31,713 lots, with decreases in some warehouses such as Suining Tiancheng, Zhongchu Lingang, etc. [36]