Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot market for caustic soda is in a downward trend, but the futures market is still at a large discount. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Contradiction - The spot market is weakening. In the medium - to - long - term, there is pressure from new production, the market pattern is deteriorating, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The near - term inventory is not high, there are limited substantial contradictions, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The procurement price has been reduced twice this week, and the spot price is in a downward channel. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with an expected concentrated launch of production capacity on the supply side, and the increase in demand is insufficient to support a market reversal [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of caustic soda is predicted to be 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.14%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 20.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2600 - 2650 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) at 30 - 40 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2300 - 2350 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. Price and Spread Data - Futures Price and Spread: On June 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2328 (down 1 or - 0.04% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2273 (down 3 or - 0.13%), and the 01 contract was 2260 (down 10 or - 0.44%). The 5 - 9 spread was 55 (up 2), the 9 - 1 spread was 13 (up 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 (down 9) [5]. - Base Price: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was 203 (down 62), the 09 contract base price was 258 (down 60), and the 01 contract base price was 271 (down 53) [5]. - Factory - Gate Price: The 32% caustic soda factory - gate price in Shandong Jinling decreased from 2594 to 2531 (down 62.5 or - 2.4%) on June 17, 2025. Some other brands and regions remained stable [6]. - Market Price: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained stable on June 17, 2025 [7]. - Brand/Regional Spread: The spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased from 26 to 89 on June 17, 2025. Some other spreads also changed or remained stable [7].
烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250617
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-17 13:32