Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakens seasonally, pressuring the steel price. However, inventory is decreasing at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4][38]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have not improved, and the price is under pressure. But overseas risks are easing, so it is expected that the price will continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][38]. - Iron ore: The main contract price fluctuates weakly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weakening, pressuring the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the large discount of the futures price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, Shanghai's urban infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and the city's total social fixed - asset investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6]. - In May 2025, the production of commercial vehicles was 336,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%), and the sales were 335,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%). From January to May, the production and sales were 1.746 million and 1.753 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.2% and 1.2% [7]. - Australian mining company Tempest Minerals announced the test results of the Remorse iron ore project, with an iron ore grade of up to 70%, and most samples have an iron content of over 68% and extremely low impurity levels [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,060 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,229 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, Tianjin is 3,110 yuan, and the national average is 3,233 yuan. - Other products: The price of Tangshan billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 714 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,981 | 0.17 | 1,046,277 | - 491,145 | 2,140,997 | - 23,735 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,093 | 0.13 | 353,677 | - 249,865 | 1,522,669 | - 5,724 | | Iron ore | 699.0 | - 0.07 | 319,182 | - 219,028 | 675,663 | - 9,829 | [11] Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [13][14][19]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Includes charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory [20][21][26]. - Steel Mill Production: Includes charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [28][29][31]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both declining. Supply is at a low level for the year, and inventory is decreasing, which supports the steel price. However, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand is seasonally weak, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Although production has decreased due to steel mill maintenance, it is still at a high level for the year, and supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Demand is weakly stable, and industry contradictions are accumulating. Overseas risks are easing, and the price is expected to continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern weakens as expected, and inventory is accumulating. Steel mill production is weak in the off - season, and ore consumption is declining. Supply remains at a high level. The price is under pressure, and the futures price discount is large. The price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [39].
现实矛盾有限,钢矿延续震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-17 13:45